Research notes
Research on industry changes and company developments, checked against filings, financial statements and original studies.
Strong memory profits have materialized; how long they last depends on product differences and capacity coming online
Samsung’s consolidated earnings guidance and Micron’s financial results show that upstream profits have materialized. But price forecasts, long-term customer contracts and new fab construction plans are not enough to establish that high profits can last. Enterprise demand coexists with purchasing pressure in consumer markets, making the product mix more informative than industry-wide average price increases.
Read the article →Rate hikes can slow, but tech companies’ cash flows still need checking company by company
Waller signaled flexibility in the pace of rate hikes but did not announce a pause. The available evidence supports continued attention to inflation constraints, but it is insufficient to establish the path of subsequent meetings. Company-level judgments also need tighter limits: being a platform company cannot substitute for checking cash flow, and the sensitivity of reserve yields to interest rates does not directly establish the direction of profits.
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